Where is the Economy Headed in 2013?

TRANSCRIPT:

Bad news for the nations largest retailer Walmart, reports coming in their february sales numbers a total disaster. CNBC’s Courtney Reagan joins us now with the details.

Good evening, Courtney. Good evening, Larry. Dow component Walmart and other retailers moved sharply lower after a Bloomberg report citing an internal e-mail from vice president of finance Jerry Murray to other executives saying February month to date sales are a total disaster and are the worst start to a month in my seven years with the company.

Executives paying higher payroll taxes and delayed tax returns. We’ve reached out to Walmart and received this statement in response. As with any organization, we often see internal communications that are not entirely accurate that lack the proper context and represent individual opinions. We will release our fourth quarter earnings on Thursday, February 21st, before the market opens.

Now, trading in Walmart shares average daily volume today. Walmart shares fell sharply, though began t0 come a bit back. Walmart investors have been concerned about the retailer’s consumers feeling pinched since the company started rementioning the prominent paycheck cycle a couple quarters ago. Add in the payroll tax increase, higher gas prices, and Walmart’s February sales become even more in focus for Wall Street. We’ll know for sure onT hursday morning. Larry?

All right. CNBC’s Courtney Reagan. Let’s talk to Joe Lavorgna, Deutsche bank chief economist. Our panelist here,  good to see all of you. Is this Walmart catastrophe going to be apocryphal? Tax hike from payrolls. Higher gasoline. We get late refund payments, Joe. What’s the deal here?

Larry, certainly something to bear watching. Walmart’s a very important company. they account for about 40% of retail sales, which account for about 30% of consumption. So clearly they’re important. Anecdotally it’s interesting but if these are the worst sales in seven years that’s really not that bad because those six was a decent year for growth. Housing was still peaking. I’d be more concerned if they said it was as bad as what they’d seen during the downturn. I don’t know if it’s company specific. I don’t know if it’s related to the tax rebate. All i can tell you is the data don’t look as bad as i would have thought a month ago. They don’t look great. I know you’re an optimist. I’m an optimist. but retail sales are kind of crummy.

Retail sales were kind of crummy. I don’t think they were — consumer sentiment was okay today in the report. But it’s still below where it was in the fourth quarter. I can’t give you the whole ship here. These Walmart guys, they know what they’re doing. They do. But here’s the thing. As you know, this data is incredibly volatile. And what we’ve seen pretty much across the board, whether it’s employment or retail sales, we tend to see big upward revisions.

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